According to a new eMarketer report, “Worldwide Social Network Users: 2013
Forecast and Comparative Estimates,” nearly one in four people worldwide will
use social networks in 2013. The number of social network users worldwide will rise
from 1.47 billion in 2012 to 1.73 billion in 2013, an 18% increase year on year
(YoY) and by 2017, and the number of users globally will total 2.55 billion.
Growth rates (YoY) are coming down with the growth declining by 5% in 2014
compared to 2013 and by 2% every year till 2017 which signifies maturity in the
number of users in developed markets like US, UK, etc. where the population is
smaller and population growth rate is also slower compared to emerging
countries like India, China, Brazil, etc. Even in the other regions like Asia
Pacific, Latin America and Middle East Africa that are presently growth drivers
for social network user growth will also see fall in growth starting this year.
The number of social network users is directly linked to the
telecommunication and internet penetration levels particularly in emerging
countries. It also depends on literacy levels, population growth rates and
relevant government spending in upgrading telecom and internet infrastructure
like broadband. Key players in this segment are Facebook, Google+, Twitter, YouTube,
etc. have been there for years and dominate the market in terms of number of
users. Many new social networking sites have emerged in the recent years but
failed to build up the numbers as big as Facebook but they are also picking up
slowly. The amount of services and number of applications on the various social
network sites have also increased drastically and most of the business
organizations across the globe be it large, medium and small in size have
significantly improved their social media presence and are spending billions of
dollars on the social platforms for selling and promoting their products and
services.
eMarketer has increased our 2013 forecast for total social network users
worldwide by 100 million since our August 2012 forecast. This upward adjustment
is based on new data that indicates higher-than-expected totals for internet
users in India, Japan, Australia, South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, Russia and the
Middle East and Africa; new data showing higher estimates for UK social network
users than previously forecast; and a new breakout of social network users in
the Netherlands, Norway, Finland, Denmark and Sweden. Accessing of the social
networks is done majorly by personal computers like desktops, laptops and
mobile devices like tablets and mobile phones not only smart phones but also
the mid-range and low range phones. Mobile manufacturers like Samsung, Nokia,
LG, etc. have also selling mobile phones at low price and mid-price levels that
are preloaded with social network applications like Facebook, Twitter, etc.
Businesses and Governments across the globe are also encouraging people to
log into social networking sites as they are providing the necessary
information related to products and services, performance and reviews, customer
feedbacks and are also providing the customers to use the social network sites
to complain about the poor quality of product services and actively express
their dissatisfaction. Politicians are also using the social network platforms
to interact with voters and citizens. There has been a significant change in
the way the social networking sites are used by users as they are not only
sharing their personal information about their personal life with friends,
relatives and colleagues, they are also actively using to interact with
business organization of whom they may or may not be customers but they are
voicing their opinion sometimes critically about the businesses and
governments. The recent Arab Spring where in people in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia,
Bahrain, etc. had voiced their opinions against their respective regimes and
which led to the down fall of the dictatorial regimes and blossoming of
democracy. Some governments are even looking to curtail the social networking
sites usage by their citizens but are failing to do so effectively. Overall the
number of social network users worldwide will keep growing at a slower pace in
the next five years.
There is a discussion going on in regards to the slowing down of the social
network users particularly the active users, users who login every day into the
social networking sites and spend considerable amount of time on these sites.
This is due to the social media fatigue where in some users are simply tired of
using the social networking sites extensively, got bored of it and complain
that the social networking sites are not improving their services and are not
offering unique applications like games and content that keep the users engage
and retain them. Social media fatigue is also a growing concern for the social
networking sites and they need to develop strategies to overcome them. Even the
changes in the government regulations and legislations in related to data
privacy, confidentiality, protection, online behavior and also related to
criminal and other antisocial activities on the various social networking
sites. Many laws are being passed and amended particularly in emerging
countries is also a big concern. Overall the social networking sites have a
unique challenge in the coming five years where in they have to make sure users
remain active on their sites and new users also join the sites and retain the
existing users without which they will perish as the social network sites
success is directly related to number of users.
